DATA POINTS
- 13: The number of states who have been affected by the McDonald’s E.coli outbreak
- 26%: The percentage of voters who are not confident that votes will be counted accurately on election night
- $1,700: The average price for a ticket to the World Series; the priciest ever for a World Series
- 200,000: The number of people who have unsubscribed from the Washington Post after Jeff Bezos blocks the editorial board from making a presidential endorsement
- 65 M: The number of early votes cast to date in the General Election
- $119M: The amount Elon Musk has donated to efforts supporting Donald Trump’s candidacy
Lights . . .
Welcome back to The Weekender! We’ve thoughtfully prepared all the election coverage that you need heading into the upcoming General Election on Tuesday, November 5. 435 Representatives, 34 Senators, 11 governorships, 43 Statehouses, state and local initiatives, and one presidency all hang in the balance. Seven battleground swing states, each capable of upsetting Kamala Harris or Donald Trump’s race to hit 270 electoral college votes, will decide the fate of the Oval Office. Roughly 244 million are Americans eligible to vote, while 65 million mail-in and early in-person votes have already been cast across the country – breaking records as more voters feel the pressure to make their voice heard.
This special election coverage is for the seasoned politicos, the first-time voters, the on-the-fencers, the ambivalent, the dedicated pollsters, and the disenfranchised outsiders. The Weekender has you covered.
Camera . . .
We won’t bury the lede – the Harris V. Trump showdown is going to be a nailbiter. It’s currently a dead-even race between the two, and it’s the narrowest margin Donald Trump has had to face yet. At this moment four years ago, Joe Biden had a 7.4% national poll average advantage on Trump. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 4.6% advantage. Per the latest polls, Harris has a staggeringly small 1.1% lead.
The battleground states corroborate the story. According to 538 polling, Trump leads in Arizona at +2.3, Georgia at +1.7, North Carolina at +1.4, and Nevada at +0.5; Harris has Michigan at +1.0, Pennsylvania at +0.6, and Wisconsin at +0.7. If Harris can win the three states in which she is favored, she will win exactly 270 electoral votes. If Trump wins North Carolina and Georgia while turning Pennsylvania to his side, he will win exactly 270 electoral votes.
This razor-edge margin on electoral votes crowns Pennsylvania as the most important state to take. PA went for every Democratic candidate from 1992 to 2012 forming the “Blue Wall” in conjunction with Michigan and Wisconsin. That wall held strong until Trump narrowly secured all three in 2016 (although he did lose PA to Biden in 2020 by just over 1% of the vote and Wisconsin by even less). Voters in PA care most about the issues that others do nationwide: the economy, abortion, and immigration. When the final votes are cast and counted, it is highly likely that the Keystone State is the key to the Oval.
What about the House and Senate? The House is shaping up to be a similar situation, with the best predictions asserting the balance will be a coin flip. Dems need to turn 5 seats to reach the 218-seat threshold, but the toss-up seats will be as competitive as ever. 538 predicts Republicans will maintain control of the House in 523 of 1,000 simulations – a narrow margin to toe. The toss-up races are the ones to keep a watchful eye on, including California’s 45th district (Michelle Steel – R, incumbent V. Derek Tran – D), New York’s 19th district (Marc Molinaro – R, incumbent V. Josh Riley – D), Michigan’s 8th district (Paul Junge – R V. Kristen McDonald Rivet – D), and Washington’s 3rd district (Marie Gluesenkamp Perez – D, incumbent V. Joe Kent – R).
When all is said and done, Democrats need to have a strong showing in either the House or Presidency (for them, ideally both), because the Senate is largely expected to transition to the GOP. 538 puts the odds of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 88%. 18-year incumbent Democrat Jon Tester of Montana is expected to face defeat against Republican Tim Sheehy. Democrat-turned-Independent Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia decided to retire from his post, leaving the seat all but open for Republican Governor Jim Justice II to claim it. With record-breaking ad buys running statewide, Ohio’s race between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and newcomer Bernie Moreno will be decisive as well. Brown has been ahead in the polls for months, but Moreno overtook him in the 11th hour – now holding a 1% lead. Wisconsin’s election between incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde, and Michigan’s race between Dem Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Rep. Mike Rogers are both toss-ups, but Blue holds polling leads in both.
Action!
The presidency is up for grabs, the House will move whichever way the wind blows, and a handful of Senate seats will decide the ruling party in the chamber – now is the time to vote! Vote early if you can. Find your nearest voting center, make a plan, and head to the polls to make sure your voice is heard. Be sure to read up on any local initiatives that may be on your ballot on Tuesday. Local items can play an important role in how your hometown is funded, including emergency services, schools, and transportation.
And remember, just because someone is your opponent does not mean they are your enemy. America is built upon welcoming legitimate differing opinions – don’t let politics divide, let it unite. Tune in next Friday for The Weekender’s full recap, coverage, and analysis of the election!
See you next week!
Be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn for more news and industry updates. To receive a copy of The Weekender in your inbox, sign up here.
